Neighborhood-level screening algorithms are increasingly being deployed to inform policy decisions. We evaluate one such algorithm, CalEnviroScreen – designed to promote environmental justice and used to guide hundreds of millions of dollars in public funding annually – assessing its potential for allocative harm. We observe the model to be sensitive to subjective model decisions, with 16% of tracts potentially changing designation, as well as financially consequential, estimating the effect of its positive designations as a 104% (62-145%) increase in funding, equivalent to $2.08 billion ($1.56-2.41 billion) over four years. We also observe allocative tradeoffs and susceptibility to manipulation, raising ethical concerns. We recommend incorporating sensitivity analyses to mitigate allocative harm and accountability mechanisms to prevent misuse.
Regulation, Evaluation, and Governance Lab