Recent work shows that standard greedy-decoding extraction methods for quantifying memorization in LLMs miss how extraction risk varies across sequences. Probabilistic extraction — computing the probability of generating a target suffix given a prefix under a decoding scheme — addresses this, but is tractable only for verbatim memorization, missing near-verbatim instances that pose similar privacy and copyright risks. Quantifying near-verbatim extraction risk is expensive: the set of near-verbatim suffixes is combinatorially large, and reliable Monte Carlo (MC) estimation can require ~100,000 samples per sequence. To mitigate this cost, we introduce decoding-constrained beam search, which yields deterministic lower bounds on near-verbatim extraction risk at a cost comparable to ~20 MC samples per sequence. Across experiments, our approach surfaces information invisible to verbatim methods: many more extractable sequences, substantially larger per-sequence extraction mass, and patterns in how near-verbatim extraction risk manifests across model sizes and types of text.
Regulation, Evaluation, and Governance Lab